Isabel
(1) Isabel is now a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (minimum central pressure of 921 mb). The National Hurricane Center believes, on climatological grounds, that Isabel cannot maintain that strength for long. However, the National Hurricane Center has been doubting Isabel's strengthening for three days. Moreover, they note that strengthening of hurricanes at Isabel's strength depends on localized eyewall thermodynamics. Isabel's eyewall is closing. As for the local thermodynamics, I would note the incidence of high temperature events in areas besides the North Atlantic Ocean and the slightly below normal temperatures that have been experienced on the East Coast of the United States, I'd guess that the air and ocean are in need of turbulence and heat redistribution processes. Based on this non-rigorous analysis according to Le Chatelier's principle, Isabel will maintain her strength for longer than the NHC expects. Isabel is currently 800 km ENE of the Leeward Islands.
(2) and (3) Landfall is more doubtful than it was yesterday, but most forecast models handle tropical systems very poorly. Hence, I think today that Isabel will make landfall at Sandy Hook, NJ with winds of 110 mph (minimum central pressure of 964 mb) in 257 hours.
ESA (20030911.1)
(1) Isabel is now a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (minimum central pressure of 921 mb). The National Hurricane Center believes, on climatological grounds, that Isabel cannot maintain that strength for long. However, the National Hurricane Center has been doubting Isabel's strengthening for three days. Moreover, they note that strengthening of hurricanes at Isabel's strength depends on localized eyewall thermodynamics. Isabel's eyewall is closing. As for the local thermodynamics, I would note the incidence of high temperature events in areas besides the North Atlantic Ocean and the slightly below normal temperatures that have been experienced on the East Coast of the United States, I'd guess that the air and ocean are in need of turbulence and heat redistribution processes. Based on this non-rigorous analysis according to Le Chatelier's principle, Isabel will maintain her strength for longer than the NHC expects. Isabel is currently 800 km ENE of the Leeward Islands.
(2) and (3) Landfall is more doubtful than it was yesterday, but most forecast models handle tropical systems very poorly. Hence, I think today that Isabel will make landfall at Sandy Hook, NJ with winds of 110 mph (minimum central pressure of 964 mb) in 257 hours.
ESA (20030911.1)
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