And From The City Gray, A City White Shall Rise...
Today, I return to Chicago with joy and expectation.
Isabel
Isabel is in the midst of rapid de-intensification. Its structure has badly disintegrated. It has no visible eye on the infrared satellite picture. However, some deep convection remains tenaciously clinging to the center of circulation even in the midst of the wind shear that is destroying it. Isabel therefore will likely remain a hurricane until landfall. There is even some chance that it might strengthen after its latest round of weakening. Currently, the NHC still classifies it as a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimum central pressure 956 mb). It is located about 445 km NNE of Nassau in the Bahamas.
The models have trended towards the southern solution during the last 48 hours. I can't ignore their wisdom anymore. The NHC seems to have been right about certain model initialization issues, and the models once corrected, came into better agreement. While models have been known to shift as hurricanes approach the coast and the models have been known to be wrong, I now expect Isabel to make landfall in 78 hours near the Virginia/ North Carolina border as a weak (maximum sustained winds 85 mph, minimum central pressure 973 mb). I'll be busy today, so please, if you weren't doing this before, refer to the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office (go to www.weather.gov and click on your house (ha, ha) on the national map) for further information.
ESA(20030916.1)
Today, I return to Chicago with joy and expectation.
Isabel
Isabel is in the midst of rapid de-intensification. Its structure has badly disintegrated. It has no visible eye on the infrared satellite picture. However, some deep convection remains tenaciously clinging to the center of circulation even in the midst of the wind shear that is destroying it. Isabel therefore will likely remain a hurricane until landfall. There is even some chance that it might strengthen after its latest round of weakening. Currently, the NHC still classifies it as a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimum central pressure 956 mb). It is located about 445 km NNE of Nassau in the Bahamas.
The models have trended towards the southern solution during the last 48 hours. I can't ignore their wisdom anymore. The NHC seems to have been right about certain model initialization issues, and the models once corrected, came into better agreement. While models have been known to shift as hurricanes approach the coast and the models have been known to be wrong, I now expect Isabel to make landfall in 78 hours near the Virginia/ North Carolina border as a weak (maximum sustained winds 85 mph, minimum central pressure 973 mb). I'll be busy today, so please, if you weren't doing this before, refer to the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office (go to www.weather.gov and click on your house (ha, ha) on the national map) for further information.
ESA(20030916.1)
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