Possible Severe Weather Today
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK has forecast that the Chicago metro area is at moderate risk for severe thunderstorms today. Of course, that is a qualitative forecast. Yet SPC Outlooks now contain quantitative probabilities that put the meaning of moderate risk into focus.

Hence, there is a 35% or greater probability of large hail (.75" +) occurring within 25 miles of you. There is 10% chance that hail (2" +) will occur within 25 miles of you. Moreover, there is a 25% chance that winds of 58 mph or greater will be observed within 25 miles and a 5% chance that a tornado will be observed within 25 miles of you. Too many numbers, huh?

I have to get out of here. Sorry.

ESA (20030430.1)

Erratum
In my last post, I jumped the gun with respect to my criticism of Central Command, who indeed behaved exactly as I considered appropriate.

The story I first read claimed the charges against Mr. Fake Mayor were, "for his inability to support the coalition military authority and for exercising authority which was not his."

Now, Central Command claims he was directly interfering with attempts to maintain law and order and engaging in corrupt practices to rebuild infrastructure after being asked to stop doing so.

Sorry, Central Command, I am such a evil, liberal American.

Formal Judgement: Charges against United States dismissed with prejudice (hear that, you European interlopers). Mr. Al-Zubaidi, you ought to be charged with a high delict or misdemeanor against the laws and customs of war.

ESA (20030427.2)

How To Build A Nation (1)

Situation: US Forces Arrest "Mayor" Of Baghdad

Informal Judgment: Wrong, Both Theoretically and Practically

Formal Judgment: Not Entered At This Time

Theoretical Considerations: When there is no settled civil authority, all individuals have a fundamental right to constitute one and try to gain the support of the particular people over whom this authority intends to gain jurisdiction. Until the time that more formal arrangements can be made, decisions must be limited to matters of policy or emergency. Organizing repairs to the power grid is lawful activity. Executing people you have arrested is unlaeful and reprehensible.

Practical Considerations: The "Mayor" could have had popular support. Arresting him will antagonize any popular support. Moreover, people (like me) may criticize you for arresting people on specious charges that "you're not doing things the way we say or you're not a person we know about or planned to do business with." Nation building is an organic process that should be directed towards eutaxic principles. I don't think arresting people for trying to institute some semblance of order is eutaxic.

What Should Have Been Done: I imagine a conversation like this.

American Officer: Sir, what kind of mandate do you have from the Baghdadis to be Mayor.

"Mayor": Well, Shaykh So and So in Such and Such...In effect, I have support from very prominent people all over the city.

American Officer: Well, the truth is, claiming to be mayor is getting in the way of our attempts to conduct infrastructural repairs. People are wondering about your or Shayk So and So's say so. If you would cooperate with us and So and So (Convenient American puppet), we might be able to get more done until a more formal civil administration is in place.

Mayor: Choice A: Well, I think we can work something out [Great, shake hands (or whatever) and start a healthy working relationship]

(OR)

Choice B: I don't recognize that you Americans have any authority over me. [Well, that's not quite correct. The Americans have an obligation under international law to keep civil government working as much as possible. Tell him this. If he doesn't want to listen, then you arrest him from interfering with the execution of your obligations under the Hague Convention.]

ESA (20030427.1)

PS: I have been appointed Publisher-designate of Aubade

One More Thing That Sticks In My Craw

ESA(20030425.1)

Tropical Storm Ana
A couple of days ago I remembering looking at the national satellite picture and seeing a funky little swirl near the East Coast. I thought to myself, "It can't be a tropical storm, it's April." Well, it's actually Ana, the second subtropical cyclone (cold core/ warm core hybrid) on record to have formed in April (so at least a once in twenty year event). Today, it was declared tropical. It's currently moving to the east and away from land. I wonder what this bodes for the upcoming Atlantic season.

ESA(20030422.1)

A voi la buona Pascha, lectores
A Happy Easter, Passover, or, well, happy spring to you all. A Mournful Death of Hussein (Peace Be Upon Him) to all of my readers of the Shiite persuasion.

I've had a wonderful Easter, full of good worship and good friends.
Hopefully, I'll have more substantial news to report in future.

ESA (20030420.1)

Constitution-Writing is A Difficult Business
In between my math homework and goofing around, I am trying to write a new constitution for Iraq. Essentially, I am trying to create a fairly secular state that can be made up of individual religiously or ethnically established republics.

Suggestions are welcome.

ESA (20030419.1)

Allan Bloom and Leo Strauss are Dangerous Gnostics

Recently, Lyndon LaRouche supporters were trying to distribute their materials to unwary University of Chicago students and faculty. Of course, people asked me about LaRouche. I only knew a little about his anti-Semitism and fringe Presidential campaigns. Little did I know that La Rouche envisioned himself as the tortured Socrates of the American race. Even less did I know about his thoughts on Friedrich Nietzsche and Leo Strauss. I often have theorized that the University of Chicago was remade after the Second World War in the model of the Weimar German university in the same way that it was founded in the image of Heidelberg and Leipzig in 1893. Hence, scholars such as Heidegger and Nietzche are still studied despite their impact on Nazi ideology, for otherwise how could one discuss Arendt? (Of course, as everyone ought to know, Heidegger and Arendt once dated, but that's another story.) Yet LaRouche and his supporters have a deathly hatred for Strauss and Nietzsche and claim their gnostic ideologues have infiltrated our government. (Ashcroft and Wolfowitz give them circumstantial evidence, though I believe that Ashcroft would consider himself a disciple of Christ rather than Nietzsche). Anyway, my account of this is quite rambling, but this article should make clear what I mean LaRouche and his supporters are opposed to the guiding intellectual culture of this University as this article should elucidate. Hence, if you see them on campus, put the Core to use and harass them for their bad interpretations of Plato.

ESA(20030417.1)

Both Parties Seem To Be Brain-Dead

To Joe Biden, the honorable Senator from Delaware:
First, you come up with an anti-drug initiative that is a threat to culture and public safety. Then you tack it onto the Amber Alert bill. Someday, I hope this bill comes to haunt you.

ESA (20030416.1)

Joy and Worry
Last night, I was talking with some friends about POWs who were still missing. Fortunately, I was right to have been hopeful. The ones I thought were OK were found. Credit is due to the Iraqi soldiers who, though abandoned by their officers, had the discipline not to abandon their prisoners and go home. I certainly hope that our government rewards them with some sort of token of esteem. As for worry, I am worried about the inhabitants of Baghdad and many other cities. I hope the Marines and the local police can stop the orgy of looting and civil unrest that continues in those cities. I am especially worried about intrepid Baghdad bloggers Raed and Salam Pax , who have not posted since the 24th of March.

Citizenship Program for Soldiers
I am not a lawyer, but I think someone could probably edit this. I've just been seeing too many stories about resident alien American soldiers who have been granted their citizenship posthumously or after being wounded to think that it's fair to make it hard for them to be naturalized.

An Act for the Naturalization of Alien Members of the United States Armed Forces

Be it enacted by the Senate and the House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress Assembled:

Section 1 That if any person, being a resident alien of the United States of America, shall have served six years in the armed forces of the United States and shall not currently be under investigation for violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, they, having certified the same to the Secretary of State shall be eligible for immediate naturalization.

Section 2 That the Secretary of Defense shall transmit to the Secretary of State at annual intervals, the names of those persons that have been determined to fit the criteria in Section 1 of this act.

Section 3 That the Secretary of State shall consider the information provided by the Secretary of Defense according to Section 2 to fufill the requirements of the certification in Section 1.

Section 5 That the Secretary of State should make all reasonable and proper effort to contact those who are believed by the Secretary to be eligible for naturalization under this act.

Section 6 That the Secretaries of State and Defense be authorized to make all appropriate regulations to obey and enforce the provisions of this act, yet always provided that such regulations do not place any unreasonable burden on those eligible for naturalization under this act.

End of Act

Note: This proposal does not change the law too much. Mainly, it gives active duty personnel the ability to be naturalized while in service. Before this, they had been to be within six months of applying for honorable discharge.

Lift up your heads, o you gates, that the King of Glory may enter

ESA(20030413.1)

Don't Know Much About Mohammed Saeed Al-Sahaf
Most people who have recently been visiting the site have been looking for references to Mohammed Saeed Al-Sahaf, who has reached cult figure status on the Internet. my favorite Al-Sahaf fan site is www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com Not bad for someone whose whereabouts are currently unknown.

ESA(20030412.2)

Why Do I Think There's Something Unspeakably Evil About This?

ESA(20030412.1)

Does the Republic of Iraq Exist?
I'm not sure what it takes for a jurisdiction to be said to be dead de facto , but I think the departure of Mohammed Said Al-Sahaf from Baghdad suggests that a formal declaration might be nice during the next few days.

ESA (20030409.1)

Busy Weekend
Went on a retreat this weekend. All I can say is that Temple Gray (a priest and theologian) ended up really confusing me. I think he might have confused everyone else, too. I've been applying for things tonight. Unfortunately, the weekend's burned me out so much that my current frustrations with a simple mixing model no longer seem interesting to me. It will be snowing in Chicago tomorrow. Tomorrow, I'll finally get over myself and my fears. Well, one particular fear. Tomorrow, I'll...well...why am I telling you all anything.

ESA(20030406.1)

Mesoscale Convective System
An area of strong convective activity that develops into a separate surface low/ frontal system. One is currently observed to be forming in Illinois, centered just north of Peoria. What's really cool about it is that all the major features (fronts, the low pressure center) are currently observable on radar. The system is moving towards Chicago, so expect heavy rain and some thunder in the next few hours.

ESA(20030404.1)

The Badmouther of Baghdad
Of course, by now, everyone knows Mohammed Saeed Al-Sahaf, Iraqi Minister of Information. You see him on the major networks claiming that Saddam is alive, quiescent sections of Iraq are resisting the Anglo-Saxon colonialist oppressors, and that our bombs are duds that explode for show. In other words, it is often hard to believe a word he says. If Saddam is dead, he is the public face of the interim regime. If Saddam is alive, he is the public face of the actual regime. Hence, I thought that I should dig up whatever biographical data I could find about him. [Sources are in parentheses]

As you can see, there isn't much information about Iraq's Information Minister.

Born: Have no idea.

Family: Have no idea.

Education: Good. He was Foreign Minister. He certainly has a facility for a variety of languages. Otherwise unknown.

Positions Held in Iraqi Government:
Reported to be Special Envoy of Saddam Hussein to the Prime Minister of India in January of 1991 (Xinhua News Agency, 5 January 1991).

First mention in European newspapers comes in July of 1991, when he was Iraqi Foreign Minister. It appears that he succeeded Tariq Aziz in that position after the First Gulf War. (The Independent (London) 30 July 1991). There is some controversy about his exact office from 1991-1992. My best guess is that he was Minister of State for Foreign Affairs during 1991-1992 and was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs (the senior foreign affairs brief) in July of 1992.

First Iraqi official to tour Gulf States after First Gulf War. Visited Oman, Qatar, and Turkey. (Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 11 March 1995; UPI, 11 February 1995).

Fired as Foreign Minister and appointed Information Minister in April of 2001. Allegedly fired after the Iraqi delegation at the Arab League Summit in March did not focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in discussions but instead brought up UN sanctions in disobedience to Saddam Hussein's instructions. (EMAP Business International, Middle East Economic Digest, 26 April 2001).

ESA(20030403.2)

Is SecDef a Future Poet Laureate?
ESA(20030403.1)

More Essam Al-Ghalib
Some of you liked the last article that I posted by Essam Al-Ghalib. Hence, here's the link to the rest of his recent coverage.

ESA (20030401.1)